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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.