Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
